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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a vibrant job market. Job openings rose to 9.6 million, defying expectations of a decline. There are still roughly 1.5 job openings for every unemployed person.

Hires and separations remained steady; quit rates were at a high of 2.6% and layoffs were at a low of 1.1%. This means workers are confident about job-switching, while businesses are hesitant to cut staff.

What's the takeaway for workers? If you're job-hunting or unhappy at work, now's a good time to look for new opportunities. With employers in stiff competition for talent, you may be able to find better pay or benefits.

And for businesses? The labor market is tight, making it a challenge to attract and retain top talent. Competitive pay, benefits, and flexible work arrangements are now more important than ever.

In broader economic terms, the strong labor market also impacts monetary policy. The Fed is tightening monetary policy to control inflation, and the healthy job market suggests the economy can withstand higher interest rates.

The Fed sees the tight labor market as contributing to inflation, evidenced by increased labor union strikes. Higher wages paid by employers are passed on to consumers through higher prices.

Looking ahead, the Fed could raise interest rates again this year and leave rates higher for longer than many expect. My take is that we're in a typical business cycle—higher rates now to slow the economy and battle inflation, which may eventually lead to a recession.

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