Insightful Articles

Markets remain volatile as market participants adjust to higher interest rates and a less accommodative Federal Reserve. Adding to the uncertainties are the war in Ukraine and the ongoing COVID-19 lockdowns in China.

I often look to history as a guide to what might happen next. And yet we find ourselves at a unique time in history. We are emerging from a global pandemic; there is an active war in Europe, inflation is at multidecade highs, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates when the economy shows signs of slowing. Parts of the bond yield curve have inverted, there are recession fears, and yet companies have more job openings than we have people. We have experienced all these conditions at times in the past and can glean insight from what happened next, but we’ve never had a time when all these conditions coincided.

Recency bias is the tendency to think that things that have happened recently are more likely to happen again or that a current trend will continue despite data and information to the contrary.

At the beginning of the pandemic, our portfolio models were more conservatively positioned than they typically would be. I do not have a crystal ball and could not have predicted a global pandemic, but the bond yield curve inverted on August 26, 2019, signaling an increased risk of recession in the coming year. In response to the weakening economic conditions, I reduced portfolio risk and wrote several client emails outlining the concerns and the steps I was taking. Already being on Recession Watch, I probably reacted more quickly to the new health risk than I would have during other periods of the economic cycle.

Risk tolerance is the level of risk of loss you're willing and able to tolerate while pursuing these goals. All investments involve some amount of risk, including the potential for the loss of principal.

We are in the middle of one of the seasonally strongest periods for equity markets, yet we have some potential speed bumps in the weeks ahead.