Insightful Articles

After every recession, economists and market strategists review their processes and analyses to identify economic signals that could have predicted the downturn.

Recession is a normal part of the business cycle, characterized by a period when the economy contracts rather than grows. It's often marked by decreased spending, decreased production, higher unemployment, and lower consumer confidence.

Some in traditional and social media are saying that the U.S. economy is experiencing stagflation. It makes me wonder if they know what the word means or are just being sensational to gain attention. The term stagflation describes an economic condition where slow economic growth, high unemployment, and rising inflation occur simultaneously.

The economy expanded at 4.9% in the third quarter, fueled by robust consumer spending, even as savings dipped below pre-pandemic levels. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's report highlights a 1.3% increase in household debt, reaching $17.29 trillion. Notably, credit card debt jumped to $1.08 trillion, a significant rise attributed to heightened spending and real GDP growth. With delinquency rates creeping up, especially among those in their thirties, and higher borrowing costs affecting the housing market, the financial landscape is complex. As debt servicing consumes more income, the potential for economic slowdown looms, presenting both challenges and opportunities for prudent financial management and preparation for the next economic phase.

Is the S&P 500 really entering a new bull market? Today's video challenges this idea, highlighting how small caps, usually the leaders in a new bull phase, have lagged significantly. Tune in for an alternative perspective on current market trends.

The 30-year mortgage has hit 8% for the first time since 2000. Rising mortgage rates, along with increased interest on auto loans and credit card debt, shift money that consumers might otherwise spend on discretionary items to debt service. Over time, these higher interest rates are likely to slow economic activity. The big question is, will the economy merely slow down, or could we be heading toward a recession?