JOLTS, Jobs & Inflation
This week’s strong employment data is fueling fears that the tight labor market is contributing to inflation, and the Fed will need to raise interest rates further in response.
1962
On December 12th, 1961, the S&P 500 hit a near-term high; 196 days later, on June 26th, the S&P 500 bottomed down 28%. The market rallied through the Summer, rising 13% into August. Then the market traded down 10% into late October before staging a fourth-quarter rally, gaining 18% into year-end.
The Ghost of Arthur Burns
You may not know who Arthur Burns was or why you should care, but in economic circles, his name is well known as the Federal Reserve Chairman, whose monetary policy missteps were responsible for or contributed to Stagflation and the Great Inflation of the seventies, which later led to a deep recession in the early eighties.
What Will the Stock market Do after the Mid-Term Election?
A look at the historical market returns following mid-term elections.
Recession? Semantics!
People experience the economy differently. Some people's economies are in recession while others are not, and the data is mixed.
Economic and Market Update
The data suggests we are in a bear market and mild recession. During a recession, the average drawdown for the S&P 500 is 30%; so far, we’re down 20%, making another leg down a reasonable expectation, but we can’t know that for sure.