Insightful Articles

At the beginning of the pandemic, our portfolio models were more conservatively positioned than they typically would be. I do not have a crystal ball and could not have predicted a global pandemic, but the bond yield curve inverted on August 26, 2019, signaling an increased risk of recession in the coming year. In response to the weakening economic conditions, I reduced portfolio risk and wrote several client emails outlining the concerns and the steps I was taking. Already being on Recession Watch, I probably reacted more quickly to the new health risk than I would have during other periods of the economic cycle.

Risk tolerance is the level of risk of loss you're willing and able to tolerate while pursuing these goals. All investments involve some amount of risk, including the potential for the loss of principal.

We are in the middle of one of the seasonally strongest periods for equity markets, yet we have some potential speed bumps in the weeks ahead.

There was a lot of market-moving economic news this week. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve ended their two-day meeting and announced their plan to begin reducing asset purchases. Thursday, the Labor Department reported that weekly initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 269,000. Friday, The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payroll employment rose by 531,000 in October. Pfizer announced results from their clinical trial of its experimental Covid-19 pill. Former head of the FDA, Dr. Scott Gotlib, said, “By January 4th, this pandemic may well be over, at least as it relates to the United States." Portfolio Model changes in October and November.

Monday, September 20th, the S&P 500 sold off 1.7%. It was painful to watch. By Friday, the market recovered the losses and ended the week higher. Market pullbacks can be unpredictable but should be expected. In this chart, we see that since 1980 there have only been three previous years without a pullback of 5% or more. There have not been two years in a row without such a pullback. A drawdown of 5% or more before year-end would be typical. To go the next 15 months without a correction of 5% or more would be a statistical anomaly.

Americans have a history of being charitable. According to the Giving USA Foundation's annual report, individuals, corporations, and foundations gave a record $471.44 billion to charities, social causes, and other qualified organizations in 2020. The US tax code encourages charitable giving by providing various income tax incentives to charitably minded taxpayers. Some of the more common tax-favored charitable donation methods are Cash Donations, Qualified Charitable Distributions, and the donation of Long-Term Capital Gain Property.