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September 2024 Recession Watch Thumbnail

September 2024 Recession Watch

The inversion of the yield curve has been a reliable early indicator of an impending recession. The inversion serves as the initial signal, while the subsequent normalization of the yield curve has historically indicated that a recession may be imminent (see chart below). I began warning of a possible recession when the yield curve inverted in July 2022. Had I known that this inversion would last 790 days and become the longest in history, I might have waited. This week, the yield curve began the normalization process, suggesting that a recession may be on the horizon.

Keynesian Economics, developed by John Maynard Keynes, posits that during economic downturns, government intervention through fiscal policy, such as deficit spending, can stimulate aggregate demand, thereby preventing or mitigating recessions. The US government is currently running a budget deficit of 6.7% of GDP. The US has never run a deficit this large other than during WWII, the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19. The moral of the story is, if you borrow enough money you can postpone economic pain.

Summary of Indicators:

  • 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Curve Inversion – Triggered July 7, 2022
  • 10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Curve Inversion – Triggered October 25, 2022
  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York Recession Probability – Triggered December 1, 2023
  • Sahm Rule Recession Indicator - Triggered August 2, 2024
  • The Normalization of the Yield Curve – Triggered September 4, 2024
  • The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) – Not Currently Triggered
  • Negative Jobs Report - Not Currently Triggered
  • GDP-Based Recession Indicator - Not Currently Triggered
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) – Not Currently Triggered

Explanations and Details:

Inverted and Normalized Yield Curve

An inverted yield curve, where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, is a key economic sign because it has often predicted recessions. In 1986, Dr. Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University, found that the inversion between the 10-year Treasury Bond and the three-month T-Bill was a reliable recession predictor. His model was first based on data from four past recessions. Since then, the model has correctly predicted four more recessions without any false signals, including the recession during the COVID-19 pandemic. On average, the yield curve has been inverted for about 12 to 18 months before a recession starts. The current inversion, which began on October 25, 2022, has lasted for over twenty-two months, marking the longest period of inversion without a recession. This long inversion suggests that investors expect slower economic growth and lower inflation in the future, leading them to lock in long-term rates even if they are lower. 

NY Fed Recession Probability

The New York Fed's U.S. Recession Probabilities Report is an important economic indicator that estimates the likelihood of a recession within the next 12 months. This report is based on the yield curve spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month Treasury bill. The methodology was developed by economists Arturo Estrella and Frederic Mishkin, who showed that an inverted yield curve—where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates—has historically been a reliable predictor of economic downturns. The current U.S. recession probability over the next twelve months is 55.83%, which may seem like a coin flip until you consider that the long-term average is 14.85%. The probability has never reached this level without a recession following. 

 The Sahm Rule

The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, developed by economist Claudia Sahm, serves as a coincident indicator that identifies the start of a recession often before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes its official declaration. This rule is triggered when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate increases by 0.5% or more from its lowest point in the preceding 12 months.

 

Leading Economic Index®

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.2 percent in June following a decline of 0.4 percent in May. Over the first half of 2024, the LEI fell by 1.9 percent, a smaller decrease than its 2.9 percent contraction over the second half of last year.

 

Negative GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, known as a "technical recession," have been a common indicator of economic downturns since the 1970s. While this metric is straightforward and measurable, it's not the official definition used by economists or the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the U.S. The NBER considers a broader range of factors, including employment, income, and industrial production, to date recessions. Historically, the two-quarter GDP decline has reliably predicted recessions, with only one exception since 1948. This makes it a timely and generally accurate, though simplified, indicator of economic contractions.

NBER

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, non-profit organization widely known for its role in dating recessions in the United States. Unlike the common "technical recession" definition of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the NBER uses a more comprehensive approach. It considers a range of economic indicators, including employment, real income, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales, to determine the start and end of recessions. By analyzing these various factors, the NBER provides a more nuanced and accurate assessment of economic health. This thorough methodology ensures that recession dating reflects broader economic trends rather than relying solely on GDP figures. However, it's important to note that by the time the NBER declares that a recession has begun, it is generally obvious to most observers, and the economy is often already well into the downturn.

While many are optimistic about avoiding a recession and achieving a rare economic "soft landing," it's important to consider the lagged effects of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and rate cuts. These lagged effects mean that the full consequences of changes in the Fed Funds rate take time to filter through the economy, affecting everything from consumer spending to business investments. Despite the optimism, the effects of higher rates are and will continue to weigh on economic activity even after the Fed cuts rates. We will continue monitoring these and other economic indicators for signs of inflection in the economy and markets.