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S&P 500’s Biggest Days: What Followed Then—And What Could Follow Now Thumbnail

S&P 500’s Biggest Days: What Followed Then—And What Could Follow Now

On April 9, 2025, the S&P 500 posted a remarkable gain of 9.52%, the biggest one-day gain since 2008. Moves like this have occurred before and tend to follow major shocks or policy announcements that shake market expectations.

The main trigger for this surge was a 90-day tariff suspension announced by President Trump, aimed at easing weeks of trade-war-driven declines. However, uncertainty remains. A 10% universal tariff is still in place, and tensions with China continue, with tariffs on Chinese goods raised to 125%.

To put this event in context, I’ve ranked other significant daily gains in the S&P 500’s history. Each entry includes the 1-year return and the maximum drawdown in the 12 months that followed, along with a short explanation of the driving factors.

The S&P 500, consisting of 500 leading U.S. companies, was officially launched by Standard & Poor’s on March 4, 1957. Before that, indexes like the S&P 90 were used. For dates before 1957, this analysis uses the S&P Composite—a reconstructed index based on monthly averages. Post-1957 data comes from daily or monthly closing prices pulled from financial archives. While pre-1957 data provides useful context, it may not be as precise as data collected after the index’s formal launch.

 October 30, 1929: +12.53% Daily Gain

  • 1-Year Return: -31.11%
  • Max Drawdown: ~42.06%
  • Reason: A brief rebound after Black Tuesday’s crash reflected bargain-hunting, but the deepening economic collapse soon resumed, intensifying the Depression.

June 22, 1931: +10.51% Daily Gain

  • 1-Year Return: -66.00%
  • Max Drawdown: ~66.00%
  • Reason: A temporary rally amid banking panic hopes faded as the Great Depression worsened, leading to a steep market plunge.

October 6, 1931: +12.36% Daily Gain

  • 1-Year Return: -3.20%
  • Max Drawdown: ~48.76%
  • Reason: Fleeting optimism, possibly tied to banking relief efforts, drove this gain, only to subside as economic distress persisted.

 September 21, 1932: +11.81% Daily Gain

  • 1-Year Return: +28.50%
  • Max Drawdown: ~20.09%
  • Reason: Early New Deal policies and recovery signals post-Depression lows sparked this uptick, supporting a sustained advance.

March 15, 1933: +16.61% Daily Gain

  • 1-Year Return: +47.14%
  • Max Drawdown: ~0%
  • Reason: Roosevelt’s New Deal and the Banking Holiday’s success restored confidence, igniting a powerful rally after years of financial ruin.

May 20, 1933: +9.52% Daily Gain

  • 1-Year Return: +9.44%
  • Max Drawdown: ~17.55%
  • Reason: Continued New Deal momentum and industrial recovery signals fueled this rise, though gains leveled off over the year.

September 5, 1939: +11.89% Daily Gain

  • 1-Year Return: -12.12%
  • Max Drawdown: ~22.15%
  • Reason: Wartime production optimism following WWII’s outbreak triggered this surge, moderated by global conflict uncertainties.

 October 13, 2008: +11.58% Daily Gain

  • 1-Year Return: +7.09%
  • Max Drawdown: ~32.61%
  • Reason: A coordinated global bank bailout during the financial crisis spurred this rally, though volatility lingered amid recovery.

October 28, 2008: +10.79% Daily Gain

  • 1-Year Return: +13.06%
  • Max Drawdown: ~28.06%
  • Reason: Bargain-hunting and stabilization hopes post-Lehman collapse propelled this gain, marking early crisis recovery signs.

April 9, 2025: +9.52% Daily Gain

  • 1-Year Return: Not yet available
  • Max Drawdown: Not yet available
  • Reason: A tariff pause reversed weeks of selloffs from Trump’s trade policies, though China tensions and market fragility persist.

Historically, these significant daily gains often mark pivotal moments—some ushering in recovery (e.g., 1933’s +47.14%), others preceding sharper declines (e.g., 1931’s -66.00%). Yesterday’s rally, reminiscent of October 2008’s crisis-driven spikes, highlights a market seeking footing amid policy upheaval. The 1-year outcomes vary widely, shaped by the prevailing economic landscape. The next year hinges on trade policy clarity, inflation trends, and Federal Reserve actions—elements still evolving.

I do not have a crystal ball, nor can I see the future. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and historical patterns serve only as context, not a forecast, for what lies ahead.