January Global Economic Outlook
Excerpt: A look at the economic research behind investment decisions—covering the U.S., Europe, China, Japan, India, and six other regions shaping the global outlook for 2026.
Market Outlook: Mixed Signals
GDP growth surprised to the upside, but strip out AI spending and the picture softens. The labor market is cooling. Housing is splitting by region. Here's what the data tells us heading into 2026.
Strong Growth, Shaky Confidence
The economy is closing out 2025 with a familiar split personality: strong growth numbers paired with weakening confidence measures. Understanding what these crosscurrents mean requires looking beyond the headlines.
The Data Returns: Signs of a Cooling Economy
Economic data resumed this week after a 43-day government shutdown, revealing a job market losing steam, inflation cooling but not conquered, and consumers feeling the squeeze. Here's what the numbers tell us about where the economy stands heading into 2026.
Global Business Cycles: Where We Stand
Most major economies are grinding through late cycle, with manufacturing weakness widespread and services doing the heavy lifting. Canada and South Korea have tipped into contraction. The bright spot is Southeast Asia, the only region showing early-cycle momentum.
Playing Defense: The Economy Isn't Breaking, It's Bracing
The economy is sending mixed signals as 2025 winds down. The Fed delivered its third consecutive rate cut, but the decision drew rare dissent, and officials are signaling a slower pace ahead. Workers are holding tight to their jobs, small businesses are shedding workers at the fastest pace since 2023, and consumers are bracing for higher costs on healthcare, rent, and groceries. This is an economy playing defense heading into the new year.