
September 2024 Recession Watch
The inversion of the yield curve has long been one of the most reliable indicators of an impending recession. When the yield curve first inverted in July 2022, it signaled the potential for economic slowdown. Now, over 790 days later, the yield curve has started its normalization process, historically marking the final warning that a recession may be imminent. As key economic indicators flash recession signals, from the Federal Reserve's Recession Probability Report to the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, the economy stands at a critical juncture. While some still hold hope for a 'soft landing,' the data suggests that we may be nearing a downturn, with the lagged effects of rate hikes continuing to weigh on economic activity.