Insightful Articles

The inversion of the yield curve has long been one of the most reliable indicators of an impending recession. When the yield curve first inverted in July 2022, it signaled the potential for economic slowdown. Now, over 790 days later, the yield curve has started its normalization process, historically marking the final warning that a recession may be imminent. As key economic indicators flash recession signals, from the Federal Reserve's Recession Probability Report to the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, the economy stands at a critical juncture. While some still hold hope for a 'soft landing,' the data suggests that we may be nearing a downturn, with the lagged effects of rate hikes continuing to weigh on economic activity.

In this month's "Recession Watch," we analyze key economic indicators signaling potential slowdowns, including yield curve inversions, rising recession probabilities, and the latest from the Federal Reserve and NBER. As we navigate these uncertain times, understanding these signals can help anticipate economic trends and make informed decisions. Explore the latest data and expert insights to stay ahead of potential downturns.

Recessions can catch many off guard, disrupting careers and finances. However, by paying attention to certain economic indicators, we can anticipate potential downturns. This post explores key signals such as yield curve inversions, recession probabilities, and other vital metrics to help you stay informed. Learn how to interpret these indicators and what they mean for the future of the economy.

After every recession, economists and market strategists review their processes and analyses to identify economic signals that could have predicted the downturn.

Recession is a normal part of the business cycle, characterized by a period when the economy contracts rather than grows. It's often marked by decreased spending, decreased production, higher unemployment, and lower consumer confidence.

Some in traditional and social media are saying that the U.S. economy is experiencing stagflation. It makes me wonder if they know what the word means or are just being sensational to gain attention. The term stagflation describes an economic condition where slow economic growth, high unemployment, and rising inflation occur simultaneously.