Growth Without Jobs
The U.S. economy enters 2026 with 5% GDP growth and the weakest job creation since 2003. What explains the gap, and what does it mean for your money?
January Global Economic Outlook
Excerpt: A look at the economic research behind investment decisions—covering the U.S., Europe, China, Japan, India, and six other regions shaping the global outlook for 2026.
Market Outlook: Mixed Signals
GDP growth surprised to the upside, but strip out AI spending and the picture softens. The labor market is cooling. Housing is splitting by region. Here's what the data tells us heading into 2026.
Strong Growth, Shaky Confidence
The economy is closing out 2025 with a familiar split personality: strong growth numbers paired with weakening confidence measures. Understanding what these crosscurrents mean requires looking beyond the headlines.
The Data Returns: Signs of a Cooling Economy
Economic data resumed this week after a 43-day government shutdown, revealing a job market losing steam, inflation cooling but not conquered, and consumers feeling the squeeze. Here's what the numbers tell us about where the economy stands heading into 2026.
Global Business Cycles: Where We Stand
Most major economies are grinding through late cycle, with manufacturing weakness widespread and services doing the heavy lifting. Canada and South Korea have tipped into contraction. The bright spot is Southeast Asia, the only region showing early-cycle momentum.