The S&P 500 hit an all-time high the same week gas prices reached a four-year high and initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969. The contradictions in this economy are striking, and the data tells a story the headlines are missing.
The S&P 500 hit an all-time high and consumer sentiment hit an all-time low on the same day. Here's what that disconnect means and what to watch next week.
The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time as ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon eased two of the spring's biggest market overhangs. The relief is real — but the headlines have moved faster than the underlying facts.
The economy added 178K jobs, the S&P posted its best week since the war began, and oil is still above $100. Most of the data we're looking at was collected before the war's economic impact had time to filter through. The real tell comes with first quarter earnings.
The Fed held rates steady this week, but the message underneath was clear: inflation is reaccelerating and the path forward is getting narrower. PPI surged, the CPI Nowcast crossed 3%, and GDPNow moved lower.
This week's economic data looked backward. The market is looking at Iran. CPI held steady, GDP was revised lower, and the labor market held its ground, but rising energy costs and an uncertain conflict are rewriting the outlook.