Last Friday, the market priced in zero chance the Fed would move on rates in the next 12 months. By Friday's close, that number was 78%. Four days. A handful of data releases. A completely repriced Fed outlook. Here's what changed, why it matters, and what comes next.
Last year's playbook said buy the dip and wait for the reversal. This week, markets got a reminder that not every risk has an off-ramp. From TACO to NACHO, here's what the data is actually saying.
The S&P 500 hit an all-time high the same week gas prices reached a four-year high and initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969. The contradictions in this economy are striking, and the data tells a story the headlines are missing.
The S&P 500 hit an all-time high and consumer sentiment hit an all-time low on the same day. Here's what that disconnect means and what to watch next week.
The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time as ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon eased two of the spring's biggest market overhangs. The relief is real — but the headlines have moved faster than the underlying facts.
The economy added 178K jobs, the S&P posted its best week since the war began, and oil is still above $100. Most of the data we're looking at was collected before the war's economic impact had time to filter through. The real tell comes with first quarter earnings.