A peace deal may reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease oil-driven inflation, but the Fed is not ready to declare victory. Markets rose on the news, yet investor sentiment stayed cautious as higher-rate risk moved back into focus. The result is a week where the path to lower inflation looks clearer, but the Fed’s patience looks thinner.

Inflation moved the wrong way again in May. Consumer prices rose 4.2% over the past year, producer prices 6.5%, and jobless claims ticked up across the board. Growth is still tracking at 3.3%, yet markets now put roughly a 78% chance on a rate hike within the next year. All of it lands on the Fed's table when it meets next week. Here's the week's data at a glance.

A strong May jobs report has markets rethinking the path of interest rates, with a hike now looking more likely than a cut. Meanwhile, money is rotating out of technology stocks ahead of the SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs. Here's what's driving markets this week and what I'm watching from here.